Why should Ethiopians die in Somalia?

By Abebe Gelaw ǀ July 20, 2006

It is with a great deal of interest that Ethiopians seem to have been following up the news about Meles Zenawi’s “readiness” to invade neighbouring Somalia. With a tone of bravado, the Minister of Information, Berhan Hailu, told the Associated Press: "We have the responsibility to defend the border and the Somali government. We will crush them,"

The government's critics believe that this is another ploy by the the Prime Minister to gain the full sponsorship of the West that has been in serious dilemma in the aftermath of his full-scale crackdowns agaisnt his political opponents. It appears that the following major considerations have been explored before they made a declaration of war.

Diverting attention from internal crisis

 The main concern for the majority of Ethiopians has now been putting an end to the terrorism being unleashed by Mr Meles against the poor people of Ethiopia. The opposition is under attack, CUDP’s leadership , along with journalists and human rights activists are in jails,  and suppression of dissent across the country has reached an unbearable level. The miscalculations may be that invading Somalia will help him divert attention from critical domestic issues and his relentless campaigns of repressions.

War by proxy

Meles might have already negotiated the fees for waging a proxy war. Even if that may not be the case, the US needs an army that can fight its war on terror. At a time when America is fully stretched militarily, war by proxy is the best option and the least costly option. After the debacles of Operation Restore Hope, the US does not wish to directly confront anti-American Islamists in Somalia. As a result of his willingness to wage war if necessary, the Bush Administration, despite its obvious dilemma, is likely to increase its financial, military and logistical backing to one of its friendly African dictators. However, the Bush administration may also rethink its misguided foreign policy that is primarily based on national interest calculations even at the expense of such a highly volatile region like the Horn of Africa.

Curbing Eritrean influence

The Meles regime has loudly declared that Eritrea is organising and supporting the Islamists in Somalia as well as home grown armed dissidents. Given the history of Meles Zenawi’s former mentor, Issayas Afeworki, the allegations could to be true. As the two violent dictators are vying for supremacy in the Horn of Africa, this can be a good opportunity for them to check their sphere of influence in Somalia  as their border conflict has proved to be inconclusive and costly.

Puppet government

The transitional government of President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed is seen by the Islamists as a powerless puppet of Meles Zenawi. Unless Meles intervenes, the puppet government will soon be crushed by the Islamists, who have been gaining the military upper hand throughout Somalia.

HR 5680

Meles Zenawi appears to be determined to frustrate the Ethiopian Freedom, Democracy, and Human Rights Advancement Act 2006 (HR 5680).  His expensive lobbyists at DLA Piper Rudnick Gray Cary, that earn $50000 a month, have already started a concerted campaign to convince American lawmakers that the bill will greatly impede the war on terror in Somalia. They are arguing that the bill should be rejected in its entirety as it will weaken the Meles regime's ability to defeat “terrorists” in Somalia, though democracy is the best way to stabilise our world.

Show of force

The West has been made to believe that Meles Zenawi is a strong military ally. Such bravado of “crushing” terrorists will help him boost his flagging popularity as a strategic ally to the West. He wants them to take it at face value that he owns an army that can march to Mogadishu.  

The Horn of Africa is a highly volatile region. For decades it has seen the rise and fall of violent rebels, factions, dictators and external powers. During the Cold War Era, the US and the former Soviet Union invested heavily in arming Siad Barre and Mengistu. Despite the fact the sub-region is one of the poorest parts of the world, it remains one of the most militarized region to a dangerous extent. The gamble that the US is now ready to play with the support of its adventurist allies like Meles Zenawi will not pay off a positive dividend in the long run, but will further destabilize the sub-region as a whole.

Speaking on PBS News Hour Program on June 6 2006, Herman Cohen accused the Meles regime of “feeding false intelligence about terrorists being hidden” in Somalia. According to him, the regime should be told: “Now is the time for talks instead of fighting." That is a pretty sensible piece of advice that not only the US but also the Meles regime needs to take seriously to bring about lasting peace and stability instead of focusing on short-term military victories.

The major threat to Ethiopia comes not from Somalia but from a violent ethnocentric rebel group led by Mr Meles who has messed up Ethiopians for far too long and now has chosen to deny them to be ruled by their elected leaders. Today the all-out war being waged by the tyrant against democracy and freedom is the greatest threat facing our poor nation. A costly invasion against Somalis, who are already weakened by their own protracted fraternal conflicts, may buy Western support and applause for the hated regime, but not the votes and respect of the Ethiopian people. Beating a war drum and fanning nationalist fervent at a time when the nation is gripped with internal crisis after the disputed May 2005 national elections will not change the reality at home. Ethiopians are much more frightened by the terror being unleashed by the regime than Islamists in Somalia. Peace must start at home. Otherwise, it will end up being another farcical drama by a peace less peacemaker who has been relentlessly dismantling the very foundation of freedom and democracy in Ethiopia.

If our rulers feel like fighting, why don't they fight abject poverty, illiteracy, diseases, HIV/AIDS, corruption and dictatorship that have undermined Ethiopia's progress for far too long? A war ravaged and poor country like Ethiopia, cannot afford to get bogged down in another Iraq in the Horn of Africa.